The Great Acceleration

Back to economic implications of the Anthropocene… two posts ago we came across Steffen et al.’s socio-economic trends graph (featured below). Upon first glance, it really is quite clear that since the beginning of the Global Acceleration in 1950, the economy has boomed (hence the name I guess). Population has increased exponentially, augmenting aggregate global demand, giving rise to all of these wonderfully booming economies (and the not so wonderful climate change).

 So what to make of all of this data? Well, lets start with talking about population growth, a very controversial issue. You may have come across the UN population predictions graph below based on data, which can be seen here:

The medium fertility assumption is based on projections using the Bayesian Hierarchical model. The high and low variant projections are based on +/- 0.5 of the medium fertility rate assumptions respectively. The wide consensus, including Steffen et al., tends to assume that of medium fertility assumptions. Steffen et al. assert that humanity has passed ‘peak child’, and thus suggest exponential population growth will soon come to a standstill. Assuming population growth has a significant positive correlation with economic growth, if population growth stagnates, will economic growth and all linked socio-economic trends stagnate as well?

On the other hand, rapid urbanisation may initially counteract the effect of levelling of population growth on economic growth. Over 50% of the global population now live in urban areas (Seto, 2010). We are no strangers to the fact that urbanisation leads to more materialistic appetites. In such a society, people (including you, yes you) crave the latest iPhones and other luxuries; this may in itself be enough to sustain economic growth until such a time where these materialistic industries and business stop growing. Urban costs of living are also higher, meaning people may choose to have fewer children, further reducing fertility rates; we may actually see slight population decline as projected by the low UN variant. Coupled with rapid urbanisation, population decline is likely to actually lead to increasing GDP per capita.

As we have exploited resources to the n^th degree, some of the finite resources are already beginning to stagnate. For example, Shah et al. (in Molden, 2007) posit large dam construction in the last decade has begun to level off, as there are only a finite amount of large rivers we can dam! This can also be seen in the socio-economic trends ‘Large Dams’ graph. Other resource usage however, has been noted to be on the rise e.g. fertiliser consumption, paper production and water use (also seen in the above graphs). 

However, due to such open trade, it is often found that one country’s economy is inextricably linked to the entire worlds. In 2008, when the Global Financial Crisis hit, it was so detrimental due to globalisation-induced openness of economies and trade. As one country spiralled, all trade partners soon followed. Seven years on, I'm feeling old and the global economy has mostly recovered. However, now we have a different type of global crisis: Climate change. If you’ve watched the videos in my last post, or if you’re somewhat aware of the current global situation, you will know that mitigating and adapting to the effects of anthropogenic climate change requires a global effort. Otherwise, like the financial crisis, all countries will suffer, not just one.

Many social scientists tend to approach this topic by thinking about what needs to be done to avoid damaging Earth Systems further. However, there are so many ideas on the table, I want to consider what these ideas mean for the global economy – will the Great Acceleration continue throughout the Anthropocene? Throughout the next posts I will be exploring the emergent dynamics of the new climate-economy system in the Anthropocene… I hope you’re as excited as I am!