A Dehydrated Energy Market?

Okay, so we’ve covered two of the earth’s four classical elements. Up next: Water! We can harness several types of energy from water:

• Hydroelectric Power involves harnessing energy from the movement of water in different water masses
• Tidal Power is created by moving tides, which drive turbines to generate electricity
• Waves compress trapped air, creating wave power, which drives turbines to generate electricity

As there are so many different types of energy generated from water, and the tides are always readily available, we seem to have no trouble accessing it. In fact, hydroelectric and tidal power, are the most efficient methods of large-scale electric power generation as shown below:

Hydroelectric power is also extremely cheap at 8 cents per kWh (US Energy Information Administration, 2015)! The hydroelectric power market is growing though. The graph below shows additional TWh of electricity generation produced by Hydropower since 2005 International Energy Office:

As you can see, before 2005, in 6 years, hydropower electricity generation increased by 600TWh, which shows increasing investment into such an efficient energy source. This final graph (IEA, 2011) shows the untapped potential of hydropower in various different regions:

Since hydropower is one of the cheapest and most efficient energy sources, and there is so much untapped potential, it is entirely possible that it has a lot to offer in the battle against climate change. However, to see this untapped potential materialise into a significant contribution in repairing the Earth (if we can), the market needs substantial investment and global implementations. 

Solar Energy: The Light at the End of the Tunnel?

Solar power captures incoming solar radiation through solar panels and converts it into electricity. There are different ways of harnessing solar energy for various uses including:

• Photovoltaic (PV) systems and cells – using direct sunlight to produce electricity
• Concentrated solar power – uses mirrors or lenses to concentrate large areas of sunlight or solar thermal energy onto smaller areas
• Solar thermal energy – heating water directly with solar energy

Fortunately for us, solar power should be accessible for as long as the sun exists, which is estimated to be for 4-5 billion years (Nelson, 2014). The most popular types of solar energy are photovoltaic systems and concentrated solar power, both have experienced near exponential growth, as the following PV graph shows (Solar Central, 2015):

This increase in supply, meant that demand for Solar PV energy finally stopped exceeding supply, and prices fell (shown below), although it is still the most expensive energy source:

However, this in turn led to a fall in the market value of solar energy (Clean Edge, 2013). Nonetheless, between 2000 and 2010, the global market value of Solar PV has increased more than 35-fold from $2.5billion to $79.7 billion. Solar energy tends to be most popular in developed countries as this IHS pie chart shows, with Germany, UK, USA, Japan and China taking the lead in PV installations:

However, it is important to also notice China’s astonishing market share of Solar PV energy. In the past, solar energy has been pegged as one of the most expensive energy sources. However, now that supply is meeting demand, and R&D is being increasingly invested in to make solar power as energy efficient as possible, it is becoming more affordable. Solar energy has become affordable to the extent that the Indian government is looking to implement it at both small and large scales. The World Bank estimates the SME opportunity in India to be worth $41 billion (particularly in the latter segments of the value chain e.g. planning and installation). This is further evidence that even developing countries, which haven’t developed to the same extent we have, can still have the same opportunity to industrialise, without making the same mistakes we did.

Is the Answer Blowing in the Wind?

Not many of us particularly love the wind, blowing our hair everywhere and swaying us sideways, however, believe it or not, winds can actually be very useful to us. Wind Power uses wind turbines to harness wind energy and turn it into electricity. Though there is an infinite supply of wind, wind power often fluctuates between and within regions and seasons. This may mean that it is not always completely reliable. Many wind farms and wind projects have already been established in the developed world and from the following graph (International Energy Agency, 2009) we can see that the US, China, Germany, Spain and India, are already quite invested in wind power.

The next table shows some more recent data of wind capacity throughout various regions in the world:

From this table, it is clear that Europe, Asia and North America have the most firmly established wind power markets (Nelson, 2014). Nelson also notes that on-shore wind power is a not a great deal more expensive than fossil fuels and some energy sources are much more expensive than wind power, such as photovoltaic and solar energy. However, costs can vary depending on the winds that regions can harness, which may often fluctuate. Coastal regions have an advantage, as wind is also wave generated, which is why on-shore wind power is cheaper than off-shore wind power. So, what do you think? Have I swayed you? Are you blown away at the realisation of how useful winds can be? I'll stop with the puns now, but do comment below and voice your opinion!

Next up: Solar Energy!

The Unloved Saviours: Alternative Energies

Following on from last post, now that climate change is widely accepted, society is looking to become greener. Since global warming has been largely blamed on fossil fuel combustion, which we now seem to be depleting and exhausting, I’d say it’s about time we start looking elsewhere… wouldn’t you? In fact, I’d say all of these green energies, waiting to be exploited, are feeling a bit unloved and can relate to the Grinch in his oh-so-festive spirit:

The next posts will aim to answer the following questions about alternative energy sources:

1. What are the alternatives?
2. Do we have access to harness the power of the alternatives?
3. Are the alternative energies efficient? What do they use?
4. What is the current market of these alternatives?
5. What is the potential supply of these alternatives? Will we run out?
6. Are fossil fuels still the best economic option?

It’s Not Easy Being Green… But It’s Getting Easier!

Today, I want to talk about ‘Green Technology’ - new innovative technologies, which are clean and sustainable, allowing us to fulfil our desires whilst being less harmful to the environment. These technologies can range from generating energy to non-toxic cleaning products. As this is such a big field, this post will simply focus on understanding the size of the clean technology market, and two of the biggest contributors to it – small businesses in the developing world and electric cars.

The above graph (World Bank, 2014) illustrates just how substantial growth in green technology has been. Research has shown that the clean technology market has grown at an average of 12% per year since 2007, and this growth has withstood the worldwide financial turmoil left in the wake of the credit crisis (Ayre, 2012). In 2012, the clean technology market was estimated to be valued at over $5.5 trillion and forecasted to grow at 4.1% until 2016. Industrialised, developed countries seem to have large shares of clean tech market e.g. Germany at 15%. Clean tech also seems to be firmly established in these economies, with the market generating 11% of Germany’s GDP, employing over 1.4 million people.

So, what about developing economies?

Well, the World Bank has actually identified a huge opportunity for clean technology for Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs) in developing countries, particularly in the wastewater industry! It is estimated that the SME clean technology market in developing countries can generate as much as $1.6 trillion. Potential market sizes are as follows:

• Latin America - $349 billion
• Africa - $235 billion

As shown below, Africa in fact has the largest growth in clean technology sales:

In India and Kenya, there has been increased investment in Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA). Whilst agriculture is a large contributor to GDP, it has many environmental challenges. So, the government and various donors have collaborated with SMEs to come up with innovative agricultural activities that align with CSA goals, such as, drip irrigation, food storage and agroforestry.

Companies are increasingly thinking about their Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and how and what they can give back. This has previously been done through volunteering schemes for activities such as building schools. Now CSR seems to focus more on sustainability and thinking about how their processes and projects affect the environments, and how to minimise such effects.

In 2011, James Stanier asserted that the top eco-friendly corporation was Honda, a car company. The Electronic Vehicle (EV) market has faced significant growth, which is why I want to focus on it for the remainder of this post, to show you just how big clean green technology can be! EV sales have increased exponentially and are projected to increase even more so (International Energy Agency, 2013).

However, this market is mainly based in developed countries, with the US, Japan and France taking a lead in EV stocks, although China is not far behind as seen from this graph:

More people in developed countries are taking an interest in EVs, with sales more than doubling between 2011 and 2012. The Guardian (2014) stated that in the UK alone, Alternatively Fuelled Vehicles (AFVs) registrations rose by 56% between September 2013 and September 2014, accounting for 2.3% of the total market. EVs in the UK have even more outstanding results. Pure electric and plug in hybrid vehicles saw the greatest growth between 2013 and 2014, at 181% and 454% respectively!

In the UK, at the beginning of 2014, 500 electric cars were being registered; this has now risen to an average of 2,400 EV registrations per month. This is show in the graph below (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, 2015):

Furthermore, an electric vehicle, the Nissan Leaf, was actually voted as car of the year in the UK, with more than 9,300 vehicles registered by the end of June 2015. The EV market is expected to reach approximately $110 billion by 2019, however, this may be a little hampered by falling oil prices (Business Green, 2015).  I won’t subject you to any more graphs, however, I will leave you with the thought of just how huge the green technology market could be, and how much economic growth it could stimulate.

The Problem with the Kyoto Protocol's Solution

A quick addition to last post...

The rate of increase of CO2 has been found to vary over the past 8 years. CO2Now provides data which tracks annual atmospheric CO2 level and global CO2 emissions. Links for the data I have used to create the following graphs and tables can be found at the end of this post!

Table 1: Data used to produce Figure 1 and 2

Figure 1

Figure 2

From Figure 1, it is clear that leading up to the credit crisis of 2008, global CO2 emission, did actually seem to be at a falling rate of increase, and between 2008 and 2009, emission did actually fall. However, after the credit crisis, no one seemed to be too concerned with their environmental status and instead focus on getting the economy back on it's feet. This led to an increase rate of emissions of 5.15% from 2009-2010 and a 0.64% rate of increase in atmospheric CO2, shown in Figure 2. Increase rates for both measurements then began to slow again. From 2010 onwards, emission rates of increase have been slowing; however this is not the case for the increase rate of atmospheric CO2. Perhaps we are still seeing the effects of the 5.15% rise in increase rates of emissions. This really does suggest that we need to try harder to reduce atmospheric CO2 levels, which means everyone needs to get involved!

Emission data: http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/global-carbon-emissions.html

Atmospheric CO2 data: http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/annual-co2.html

Carbon Credits: The Kyoto Protocol Solution

As you may recall, last post we established that black carbon had very harmful effects to climate and human health. One solution to reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions in particular Carbon Dioxide, is Carbon credits. The basic idea of carbon trading is that one economic party A, engages in an transaction of trading carbon credits with another party B, such that, A pays B to pollute less so that A can pollute more! Carbon credits were a result of the Kyoto Protocol, and were designed to reduce global carbon footprint. Below is Table 1 provided by the UNFCCC illustrating various countries’ reduction targets.

Table 1

More specifically, this report by the UNFCCC shows exact assigned carbon credits for various countries under the Kyoto Protocol:

Table 2

As you can see from the above table, many countries agreed to sign the Kyoto Protocol, which was a huge success. Further successes from the Kyoto Protocol can be seen in the graph below from and the 2011 figures for carbon emissions from the Union of Concerned Scientists:

Table 3

As you can see, many countries have actually reduced their carbon emission under the Kyoto Protocol targets. The nations that took on targets under the treaty agreed to reduce emissions by an average of 5%. On the 13^th February 2013, the UNFCCC announced that they had exceeded this goal and reduced emissions by more than 20%! Unfortunately, from Table 2, you may have also noticed that neither China nor the US had assigned carbon credits under the Kyoto Protocol. This was due to the fact that they did not agree to it. Considering China was the World's highest carbon emitter, this didn't inspire much confidence in many other nations hopes for reducing carbon emission. In fact, in 2011, Russia, Japan and Canada asserted they would not comply with a second round of carbon cuts in a new Kyoto agreement, due to China having no targeted emission cuts and therefore effectively, no accountability (Watts, 2011)

NASA’s latest record however, pits carbon dioxide levels at 402.23 ppm as of November 2015, shown in the graph below.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have continued to rise, even though more and more countries are making an effort to reduce emissions. This is mostly due to emerging economies such as China, and Russia, which did not agree to sign the Kyoto Protocol. The INDC database assert that these economies in particular emit the biggest proportion of GHGs globally, as seen below:

• China – 23.75%
• India – 5.73%
• Brazil – 5.70%
• Russia – 5.35%
• Japan – 2.82% (not an emerging economy but did not sign the Kyoto Protocol)

It is clear that we need a more global, unanimous effort, in which everyone agrees to tackle climate change, especially the biggest contributors. Perhaps in the upcoming COP21 negotiations we will see this result!